Current Aurora Forecast
for Canada's North
The solar wind velocity is currently low at 414 km/s. While this is certainly not the only indicator for a spectacular aurora display it doesn't help to increase our chances. However, particle density impacting the earth is very high coming in at 4 protons/cm3. These relatively high density numbers will help to improve the overall spread of the aurora we see.
The Bz value of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field is current acting in a northward direction at a value of 7 nT which doesn't help the flow of energy particles into our atmosphere. The interplanetary magnetic field can change significantly in a short period of time. A change in direction to a southward or negative value can increase the potential for active aurora by allowing more energy particles to enter our upper atmosphere. In this scenario we can expect to experience aurora sub-storms and will be reflected by a significant jump in the aurora activity level indicated on this page.
Aurora Activity Level 4/10: Aurora borealis activity is currently moderate to low. Weather permitting, northern lights displays will be visible directly overhead from areas closer to magnetic 69th.
Extended 3-Day Activity Forecast Description (May 18 to May 20): The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet during the first half of day 1 (18 May). Around mid to late on day 1, a shock arrival is expected from the partial halo CME associated with the 17 May M5 flare. Active to minor storm conditions are expected. Early on day 2 (19 May), unsettled to active conditions are expected, returning to quiet to unsettled levels by the end of the day. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day 3 (20 May).